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Social Security COLA Estimate for 2025 Drops Amid Inflation Moderation

Dip in Estimate, but Expenses Still High for Seniors

Update on COLA Projections and Ongoing Financial Concerns

The estimated cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits in 2025 has dipped to a projected 25.7%, down from an earlier estimate of 29%. This decrease is attributed to recent moderation in inflation rates, although daily expenses for seniors remain high.

Despite the decline in the COLA estimate, many seniors on fixed incomes are still struggling with the rising cost of living. Independent analyst Mary Johnson previously estimated the 2025 COLA at 24%, which would have provided a slightly lower increase in benefits.

The 2025 COLA adjustment is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July 2023 to July 2024. While inflation has shown signs of slowing, it remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group for seniors, notes that the COLA for 2024 is currently set at 8.7%. Looking ahead, the group's analysis suggests that the COLA estimate for 2025 could further decline as inflation continues to moderate.